🔗 Share this article Can the Scottish team at last break the All Blacks hoodoo? The All Blacks have made multiple changes to the team that defeated the Irish team Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement. After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match. A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent. A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued. Modern Encounters Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory. As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality. Missing Players Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying. During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Historical Context Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in 2022 Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Statistical Analysis For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively. What Scotland Needs During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity. In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks. Final Analysis Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost. With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.